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Bitcoin’s Volatility and the Long-Term Bull Case

Bitcoin’s Volatility and the Long-Term Bull Case

Published:
2025-12-15 14:31:19
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The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a period of significant volatility, with Bitcoin recently undergoing a sharp correction below the $102,000 mark. This price action has triggered a notable shift in behavior among large-scale investors, commonly referred to as 'whales.' On-chain analytics indicate a wave of profit-taking, with data showing that 738 wallets holding at least 100 BTC reduced their exposure over a seven-day period. This movement suggests a heightened sense of caution among these major holders amidst the current market turbulence, as they seek to lock in gains and manage risk following a substantial rally. Despite this short-term selling pressure from whales, the overarching narrative for Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish among its most prominent advocates. Key industry figures like Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy and a renowned long-term Bitcoin bull, continue to express unwavering confidence in the asset's future trajectory. Saylor has publicly reiterated ambitious price targets, forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the current year and ultimately ascend to $1 million within the next decade. This perspective is rooted in a fundamental belief in Bitcoin's value proposition as a decentralized store of value and hedge against inflation, transcending short-term price fluctuations. This dynamic creates a fascinating juxtaposition in the market: near-term tactical profit-taking by sophisticated players against a backdrop of profound, long-term conviction. The whale sell-off, while contributing to current volatility, does not necessarily invalidate the bullish thesis. It can be viewed as a healthy market mechanism, redistributing coins and potentially increasing network decentralization. As of mid-December 2025, the market is digesting these moves. The key question for investors is whether this represents a temporary consolidation within a larger bull cycle or a more significant trend reversal. The sustained confidence from figures like Saylor, backed by continued institutional adoption and macroeconomic trends favorable to hard assets, suggests that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains robust, even as it navigates expected periods of price discovery and correction.

Bitcoin Whales Reduce Holdings Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin's sharp correction below $102,000 has triggered a wave of profit-taking by large holders. On-chain data reveals 738 wallets holding at least 100 BTC reduced their exposure within seven days, signaling heightened caution among whales during this period of price turbulence.

Despite the sell-off, long-term bulls like Michael Saylor maintain ambitious price targets, forecasting $150,000 by year-end and $1 million within a decade. The divergence between short-term whale behavior and institutional conviction underscores Bitcoin's complex market dynamics.

Bitcoin Rebounds as U.S. Government Shutdown Ends

Bitcoin surged nearly $3,000 following the resolution of a 43-day U.S. government shutdown, reclaiming ground after briefly dipping below $101,000. The recovery coincided with President TRUMP signing a funding bill passed by the House in a 222-209 vote, reopening federal operations and reversing mass layoffs.

Market analysts had anticipated the rally, noting Bitcoin's historical sensitivity to macroeconomic stability. The shutdown's end restored critical services and paychecks for government employees, injecting confidence into risk assets. ETF inflows remained subdued at $247 million, a fraction of late October outflows.

BitFuFu Revenue Doubles in Q3 on Surging Cloud Mining Demand

BitFuFu's third-quarter revenue surged 100% year-over-year to $180.7 million, marking a record high for the Singapore-based Bitcoin miner. The company's cloud mining segment dominated with $122 million in revenue, representing 68% of total sales, while mining equipment contributed $35 million.

The firm mined 174 bitcoin during the quarter, increasing its total holdings by 19% to 1,962 coins. Registered cloud mining users grew over 40% to 641,526, fueling the revenue growth. BitFuFu posted net income of $11.6 million, reversing a $5 million loss from the same period last year.

Adjusted EBITDA skyrocketed 281% to $22.1 million, demonstrating improved operational efficiency. The results highlight growing institutional and retail demand for cloud-based mining solutions as Bitcoin's infrastructure matures.

Japan Eyes Tighter Rules for Bitcoin-Holding Firms Amid Market Volatility

Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX) is considering stricter regulations for listed companies pivoting to cryptocurrency holdings, following sharp declines in so-called 'digital-asset treasury' stocks. At least three firms have been asked to pause or scale back crypto purchase plans since September, with warnings that aggressive moves could limit future fundraising.

Metaplanet, one such firm, defended its Bitcoin-focused strategy, emphasizing shareholder approval and governance compliance. The Tokyo Stock Exchange operator may classify crypto-centric business shifts as backdoor listings, requiring fresh audits and approvals—a MOVE still under discussion.

The regulatory scrutiny reflects growing caution as DAT stocks tumble, raising concerns about investor protection and corporate governance standards in Japan's evolving crypto landscape.

Who Is Selling Bitcoin? Why BTC Price Is Dropping?

Bitcoin's inability to sustain upward momentum persists despite strong buying interest from exchange-traded products, corporations, and institutional investors. Chris Kuiper, CFA, identifies long-term holders—HODLers—as the primary source of selling pressure. These investors are gradually taking profits after years of accumulation, reflecting a mature market dynamic rather than panic-driven behavior.

On-chain data reveals a subdued decline in the percentage of Bitcoin inactive for at least one year, contrasting with sharp drops typical of bull markets. This gentle downtrend suggests long-term holders are realizing profits incrementally, aligning with a sideways-trading market where caution prevails. Investor fatigue and year-end adjustments further contribute to this measured sell-off.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Near Key Technical Levels as Analysts Eye Potential Breakout

Bitcoin trades at $103,500 with $74.5 billion in volume, showing muted daily volatility despite a slight weekly decline. Market observers highlight tightening price action as the cryptocurrency approaches decisive technical thresholds that could determine its next major move.

The 66-week exponential moving average NEAR $94,000 draws particular attention, with EGRAG Crypto noting its historical significance as a springboard for rallies. This level coincides with a CME futures gap, reinforcing its importance. Meanwhile, Ash Crypto warns of a potential 'death cross' formation in shorter timeframes, suggesting near-term bearish pressure.

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